SwedCham China Insights for the week of October 20 - October 24, 2025

Weekly China Insight

Beijing, 17 October 2025

CCP’s fourth plenum sets strategic course for the 15th Five-Year Plan, centered around resilience and innovation

On 23 October, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) concluded the fourth plenary session (4th plenum) of its 20th Central Committee in Beijing, unveiling the strategic framework for the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The plenum’s communique emphasized economic resilience, high-quality development, and technological self-reliance, while warning of growing global uncertainties. CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered key remarks framing the coming five years as a critical stage for “laying the foundation” to achieve socialist modernization by 2035. The communique outlines ambitious objectives, including significant advancement in core technologies, a robust domestic market, expanded green transformation, and industrial upgrading with advanced manufacturing as the backbone. Beijing also committed to strengthening national security systems and deepening reforms to enhance macroeconomic governance, while pursuing moderate economic growth and social stability. The leadership reaffirmed its goal to reach per capita GDP levels of a moderately developed country by 2035. Notably, the plenum marked the lowest Central Committee attendance rate since the Cultural Revolution, with only 168 of 205 members present, amid a widening anti-corruption crackdown that saw multiple top military and government officials expelled. The fourth plenum reinforced Xi Jinping’s long-term strategy of navigating geopolitical headwinds through internal consolidation. The CCP’s solution to growing global uncertainties is to double down on tech self-sufficiency, boost domestic demand, and pursue a security-first governance model. The plenum’s communique signals policy continuity, not course correction, in China's developmental trajectory. In the coming days, the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan and Xi Jinping’s explanatory speech will reveal more policy details for the next five years.

Shipping cost becomes collateral damage in escalating US-China port fee and sanctions standoff

On 14 October, the US and China simultaneously implemented steep reciprocal port fees on each other’s vessels, turning maritime trade into a new pressure point in their intensifying economic rivalry. The US fees – introduced following a Section 301 investigation into China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors – target Chinese-owned, -operated, -flagged, and -built vessels. In retaliation, Beijing imposed special port service charges of up to RMB 1,120 (USD 157) per net ton on ships with American ownership, flags, operations, or construction origins. The Chinese fee also applies a 25% US ownership threshold that could ensnare a wide array of publicly listed shipping companies. Simultaneously, the Chinese commerce ministry (MofCom) sanctioned five US subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of supporting US investigations into Chinese maritime practices. The sanctioned entities are now barred from doing business with Chinese companies. Beijing also launched a formal investigation into the impact of US trade actions on China’s own shipping and shipbuilding supply chains. China’s use of port fees and targeted sanctions reveals a more assertive and legalistic approach to countering US industrial policies. This counter move by China goes beyond symbolic retaliation – it directly reshapes global shipping behavior and amplifies uncertainty for multinational companies navigating between the two countries. The market has already seen early signs of disruption, with cargoes being rerouted away from Chinese ports and uncertainty lingering over how institutional shareholding will be calculated to define the 25% ownership clause.

China and Netherlands clash over chipmaker Nexperia

On 21 October, Chinese commerce minister Wang Wentao held urgent discussions with Dutch Economic Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič over the escalating Nexperia dispute, warning that Dutch measures targeting the Chinese-owned chipmaker threaten global supply chain stability. Beijing has demanded that The Hague uphold contractual obligations and protect Chinese investor rights after the Dutch government seized control of Nexperia and froze the assets of parent company Wingtech, citing national security concerns. The crisis has fractured Nexperia's global operations. Its Chinese subsidiary, responsible for 70% of output and headquartered in Dongguan, declared operational independence, defying directives from the Dutch headquarter. Nexperia China resumed domestic chip sales in RMB while accusing the headquarter of misinformation and jeopardizing customer confidence. Production at its Dongguan plant has shifted to reduced schedules, with clients staking out the site for signs of disruption. The fallout has prompted warnings from major industry groups including Japan’s JAMA and Germany’s VDA, who cited risks of halted vehicle production due to supply constraints. Meanwhile, the European Commission offered to mediate the conflict, as Wang confirmed he would travel to Brussels to seek a solution. The Nexperia standoff marks a pivotal moment in the weaponization of industrial policy, exposing how national security claims and ownership disputes can paralyze critical points in global tech supply chains. The supply chain disruptions are particularly prominent in the automotive sector, where redundancy and substitution are limited.

China’s Q3 GDP growth slows, but 2025 target remains within reach

On 20 October, China’s statistics bureau (NBS) reported that real GDP grew by 4.8% y/y in Q3, down from 5.2% y/y in Q2 and marking the slowest pace in a year. More importantly, nominal GDP grew only 3.7% y/y, marking its tenth straight quarter below real GDP growth. The slowing growth rate highlights persistent deflationary pressure that continues to weigh on corporate profits, tax revenue, and household income. However, quarterly momentum modestly improved, with seasonally adjusted GDP rising 1.1% q/q, slightly above the revised Q2 figure of 1.0%. Year-to-date, real GDP growth stands at 5.2% y/y, putting the economy on track to meet Beijing’s full-year growth target of “around 5%.” Industrial output grew 6.2% in the first three quarters, led by high-tech manufacturing (+9.6%) and equipment manufacturing (+9.7%). Nominal GDP growth slowdown reflects weak price dynamics, with the CPI falling 0.1% y/y in the first nine months, while PPI dropping 2.8% y/y. While Beijing is likely to meet its headline growth target for the year, the prolonged nominal GDP weakness underscores a deep demand shortage. That means China’s economic recovery will remain fragile and uneven, without stronger consumption and income support from the government.